What If: America Is Fragmented

Each kingdom divided in opposition to itself is delivered to desolation, and each metropolis or home divided in opposition to itself shall not stand.” This quote from the ebook of Matthew within the Bible served as inspiration to Abraham Lincoln, who famously paraphrased it in a speech on June 16, 1858. Three years later, the beginning of the American Civil Warfare strengthened the reality of those phrases, but it surely’s removed from an remoted instance.

From the autumn of Rome to the breakup of the Soviet Union, historical past has proved repeatedly that deep-seated division is a most cancers that — if left unchecked — can topple empires. That’s to not say that variations of opinion are a loss of life knell for any society. In lots of instances, they’re the precise reverse, serving as an indication of wholesome discourse and freedom of expression. But when the division turns to blind hatred, and hatred escalates to violence, a tipping level could also be reached.

In fashionable historical past, this phenomenon has been known as Balkanization, a reference to the division of the Balkan peninsula after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire within the early 1900s. The Balkan area — containing modern-day Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Slovenia, Montenegro, Kosovo, and North Macedonia, amongst different nations — has confronted quite a few intervals of instability, struggle, and genocide in the previous couple of centuries, incomes it the nickname “the powder keg of Europe.” A few of these nations have been united into Yugoslavia after World Warfare I, however then cut up as soon as extra within the early Nineteen Nineties, resulting in a decade of vicious wars.

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Even now, tensions are mounting as soon as once more between Serb and Bosnian leaders on account of disputes over recognition of earlier struggle crimes. In an interview with the Historical past Channel, Princeton College affiliate professor of Close to Japanese Research Michael A. Reynolds cited the Balkan area’s “super range when it comes to ethnicity, language, economics, and geography” as a rift that made unification tough.

A declassified CIA memo from 1983 defined that “issues within the Balkans have deep roots,” together with financial decline, political tyranny and turmoil, fierce nationwide/ethnic/spiritual rivalries, and the deliberate intervention of huge outdoors powers (particularly the USSR).

For a lot of Individuals, these issues sound uncomfortably acquainted. As we method one other extremely divisive presidential election in November, the information media and politicians are fanning the flames to show neighbors and households in opposition to each other. Though we sincerely hope for a greater consequence, we will’t assist however ponder what may occur if the US grew to become fragmented very similar to the failed state of Yugoslavia.

Editor’s Word: Our aim for this text is to not make a political assertion, it’s to make you consider methods to put together for large-scale unrest and instability. Attempt to not learn this by means of the lens of partisan politics. As an alternative, give attention to steps you possibly can take to be prepared for doable Balkanization of America — or higher but, to stop it altogether.

Above: Historical past supplies numerous examples of countries and empires rising to energy and breaking up. Financial decline, political turmoil, and bitter rivalries between inside factions are frequent hallmarks of this course of.

The State of affairs: Fragmented Nation

Scenario sort: Balkanization of America
Your Crew: Your self, your partner, and your two kids (ages 15 and 9)
Location: Northern Virginia
Season: Late fall
Climate: Cloudy; excessive 52 levels F, low 34 levels F

The Setup

At first, this election appeared no totally different from every other. The speaking heads on TV bickered and pointed fingers at each other, indicators appeared on each roadside, and political rants stuffed social media feeds. “It’ll be over quickly,” you thought to your self. However on the night time of the election, as votes have been being counted, large discrepancies began to seem.

States that have been thought-about assured wins for one occasion instantly flipped to the opposite. Voting tallies confirmed mail-in ballots flooding in at charges that made no sense. Each events blamed each other and accused one another of conspiring with overseas enemies to manage the outcomes.

The shedding presidential candidate informed all of America to stand up and demand a recount by power, whereas the successful candidate launched a listing of conspirators from the opposing occasion who have to be arrested instantly for election interference. In a matter of hours, there was violence on the streets of each main metropolis.

Protesters and counter-protesters clashed, every firmly believing they have been on the proper aspect of historical past. And slightly than tapering off as the times become weeks, the chaos solely acquired worse. America had reached its breaking level.

The Complication

Because the division worsened, state officers started to take sides. Senators and governors at the moment are talking out in favor their most popular candidate, claiming that the opposite candidate is a treasonous enemy of the individuals. Some even go as far as to recommend that anybody who supported the opposing occasion is responsible of treason by affiliation. Extremist teams on each side are taking this as a tacit endorsement for focused violence in opposition to companies and houses on the opposite finish of the political spectrum.

Your loved ones of 4 lives in Northern Virginia, solely about half an hour away from Capitol Hill. Washington D.C. has turn into a hotbed for violence, and legislation enforcement is unable to maintain it beneath management. The close by cities of Baltimore and Richmond are burning, with arson assaults changing into a each day prevalence, and also you’ve heard information of assaults and murders radiating outward to suburbia.

Your neighborhood continues to be comparatively quiet, however you’re feeling like you might reduce the stress with a knife. Simply yesterday, you have been shocked to see two neighbors get right into a fistfight in the course of the road. Your partner is scared to depart the home, and your children say their classmates are repeating more and more violent rhetoric handed down from their mother and father.

What are you able to do to maintain your self, your partner, and your children protected throughout this quickly accelerating nationwide turmoil? Must you try and get along with some like-minded associates for security in numbers, or must you maintain to yourselves and preserve a low profile? How will you keep on good phrases along with your neighbors, lots of whom have differing political opinions?

If arson and rioting spreads from large cities to your suburb, how would you reply? On a bigger scale, battle between states and areas might finally result in fracturing of the nation and even civil struggle. How would you put together for this life-changing consequence and the years of instability that may comply with?

Above: Washington D.C. and its surrounding suburbs can be a difficult place to outlive, as legislation enforcement and emergency companies could also be tasked with defending high-priority areas

Former Authorities Contractor Jessica Spurlin’s Method

Preparation

At first, the rhetoric and violence have been equal to what we noticed in earlier election years — pundits fanning the flames, and mysterious pallets of bricks showing on the road corners in downtown Washington, D.C. — however this yr felt totally different. As points compounded and the sensation of being pushed right into a nook grew, my husband and I made a decision to take a couple of extra steps to actively enhance our general preparedness.
Save your expressions for like-minded people.

Within the lead as much as the election, I reminded my household that we already know the place we stand and the place our neighbors stand. We all know who we will belief, who’s on the fence (possible a future sufferer), and who’s a menace. The remaining will establish themselves. This can reduce the rapid goal on my household’s again whereas we assess the diploma to which this example evolves. Having a sensible understanding of our preparedness and what we may have will help us in specializing in who we have to collaborate with. Having a plan to collaborate is significant.

Communication

We watched a number of nations prior to now few years — for instance, Iran, Venezuela, and Bangladesh — shut down their nation’s Web and cellular companies within the face of political turmoil. Equally, we noticed a rise in bodily and cyberattacks on communication and broadcast infrastructure. Because the election acquired nearer, my husband and I made a decision it was time to buy a Starlink Roam.

Whether or not or not Starlink will keep on-line as America divides will depend upon Elon Musk, however we determined to have one in our possession after which hedge our bets as to which aspect he lands. Having Web with encrypted messaging apps, particularly Sign, will allow us to securely talk with our community of like-minded people ought to cell service turn into unavailable. I’d advocate downloading offline maps earlier than they’re wanted by means of functions like MAPS.ME or OsmAnd.

I’d additionally print duplicative exhausting copies for a (quickly approaching) wet day. By way of which maps, I’d advocate native and regional maps, in addition to detailed different routes to get to a “fall again” location, ought to or not it’s wanted. As a failsafe, we made certain our small handheld radios have been operational, and our HAM radio might simply transfer from a static location to a cellular one.

Funds

Earlier than the election, my husband and I more and more withdrew money from our financial institution accounts to make sure we had a wholesome amount of money readily available. On a traditional day, most, if not all banks restrict how a lot money you possibly can withdraw at one time. The common quantity is maddeningly low, and that’s earlier than a life-or-death situation unfolds.

We didn’t need to wait to search out out if the banks would freeze any of their constituents’ accounts for party-affiliation or simply to stop an general run on the banks, ought to the scenario deteriorate quickly after the election.

Data is every thing

Much like the preparation of our communications gear, I needed to bolster our communication streams. I’m not a fan of social media for plenty of causes (particularly the overly aggressive backend algorithms determined in your consideration and the gross oversharing of people’ private lives), however I’m in relation to open-source intelligence (OSINT).

Social media, particularly X, breaks extra tales in actual time than mainstream media. Additionally, protestors (“principally peaceable” or in any other case) typically get their directions from social media. I adopted a number of native opposition leaders (on each side) and a number of neighborhood/metropolis accounts to assist maintain me knowledgeable of any potential unrest in our space.

These accounts are possible to supply insights on any ways or tendencies being utilized, like arson, murders, or ethnic cleaning. I additionally began an nameless regional account. It’s nameless to guard my household’s identification and regional to unfold truthful data and assets to my local people within the face of elevated propaganda.

Above: When fractures inside a area get deep sufficient, particularly in the event that they’re compounded by underlying ethnic and spiritual conflicts, violence might escalate into genocide and different atrocities.

On-Web site

The civil unrest that ensued from the failed election was unparalleled. Because the violence unfold past its traditional downtown areas, my husband and I pulled our youngsters out of faculty to maintain them protected. I knew focused arson was a rising menace, so we centered our efforts there and shortly started getting ready our home.

Dwelling safety

For our house, I tasked my children with clearing any particles or simply flammable materials away from the home. We made certain the hoses and operating water have been working and in a position to attain each a part of the home. We purchased extra fireplace extinguishers and positioned them the place we might simply attain them in every room. My husband put in shiny motion-sensor lights alongside our fence and added a number of very overt cameras.

We determined to maintain our home darkish to attract as little consideration as doable, till somebody (on this case a protestor/arsonist) acquired too shut and triggered the lights. Finest case situation: the brilliant lights, cameras, and residential alarm system act as a deterrent, and the would-be arsonists select a neater goal. If not, and the would-be arsonists are as dense as they appear, we’d put together for the worst.

Private safety

Because the saying goes, “Keep strapped or get clapped.” If arsonists and murderers step onto our property with the demonstrated intent to kill or hurt my household, my husband and I shall be exercising our Second Modification proper to bear arms. We’ll take care of the authorized ramifications every time civil society comes again on-line and there may be any semblance of legislation and order. I’d advocate including a lawyer to your Rolodex of like-minded people, or no less than invite them to your Sign chat.

Gear

The variety of riots steadily elevated and confirmed no indicators of slowing. Native legislation enforcement was unable to answer the excessive calls for, and the Nationwide Guard was struggling within the metropolis facilities all through the State. Whereas we have been grateful for our early preparation, we understood we would wish to noticeably put together for long-term instability.

We bought a solar-powered generator (Aim Zero), an additional hand-crank energy financial institution, and plenty of batteries for the hand held radios, flashlights, watches, and so on.

We inventoried our medical kits and stocked up on further over-the-counter drugs for a large number of potential points sooner or later. Because it was already late fall, we had all of our winter gear out and accessible. Right now, my husband and I have been nonetheless undecided as as to whether or not we should always depart the realm, however we did resolve to accumulate extra chilly climate gear ought to we have to relocate to a colder local weather.

We additionally bought a drone for overhead imagery to function an early warning system to alert us if rioters have been approaching our neighborhood and doubtlessly in direction of our home. Our oldest baby favored this process of “fireplace watch” greater than clearing particles.

Meals Safety

The well-oiled machine of resupplying meals in America is extremely fragile, and each main metropolis, no matter their State’s “political leanings,” is grossly ill-equipped to supply for his or her overpopulated residents. Whether or not it’s protestors blocking main highways or state officers blocking cross-state shipments, meals safety goes to be a difficulty. Understanding this — and the truth that each authoritarian socialist-communist takeover has introduced mass hunger and loss of life — my husband and I secured a yr’s price of meat in our freezer, in addition to a dozen containers of 25-year emergency meals. Should you can, I’d advocate getting chickens too.

Transportation

My household and I labored to make sure we had every thing we wanted to outlive this creating nationwide disaster and made certain we had a technique to transfer all of it if we needed to (taking a look at you, tactical minivan). Since we stay so near the airport, we took observe of which planes have been nonetheless operational, in the event that they have been business, personal, or army, and the way steadily they have been flying. We’d use this information as one other indicator if the riots have been escalating right into a full-scale civil struggle.

Disaster

Like Yugoslavia, a Balkanized America would possible divide amongst ethnic, cultural, and political traces. Whether or not or not my household and I keep in Northern Virginia, solely half-hour from Washington, D.C., would depend upon what number of like-minded people are in our local people.

We’d additionally take into account whether or not Northern Virginia might turn into a “stronghold” to stage out of and whether or not the capital is price combating over. As a result of Washington, D.C., like each main metropolis, is predominantly skewed to 1 political occasion with fewer and fewer people who align with my stance, my household and I would depart. We’d additionally depart prior to later in case main highways have been shut down and any state border crossings have been applied, since we’d be shifting all of our priceless gear as properly.

Closing Ideas

The Bosnian Warfare noticed horrible atrocities akin to ethnic cleaning and mass rape. I strongly imagine the US would face related outcomes if we have been to dissolve right into a Balkanized civil struggle. Sadly, I feel this example is more and more extra prone to happen in America with each passing day.

That stated, my household and I’d put together early and add further assets as wanted to fulfill rising ways. We’d discover our group of like-minded people and, as they are saying, “brace for influence.”

Above: Defending your private home from unintended fireplace is one factor, however defending in opposition to arson is tougher. Have you ever thought-about a technique?

Former Fight Medic Jon Wayne Taylor’s Method

It’s been a bizarre life. I’ve served as a rural police officer, volunteer firefighter, and EMT going again for many years. I’ve offered medical care to susceptible populations in a few of the lousiest locations on the planet in struggle and peace as an Military medic, a contractor, and as a volunteer. I’ve been an SME for giant companies looking for to develop infrastructure initiatives all through the creating world. I’ve straight suggested members of our state and federal governments on the highest ranges. Now I run an insurance coverage firm. A typical thread there may be threat and methods to make one of the best of unhealthy decisions.

Should you’re caught in one of many main metropolitan areas in the US, you could be getting slightly nervous. You could be stocking up weapons, gear, meals and different provides.

All through my life’s work, I’ve seen communities on the sting of collapse, and past. I’m not stocking up and I’m not getting nervous. I’ve acquired fundamental provides. I’ve acquired some weapons. That’s not what I would like.

The factor I would like proper now’s to know what’s actually happening round me. No reporter can inform me this. Social media will deceive me about this. That is the important thing intelligence that can drive all of my different key choices. It’s vitally vital.

The easiest way any of us can collect data is to get to know our neighbors. Your neighbors are your first supply of actual intelligence, your probably supply of help, or your most rapid and vital threats. Discuss to them. Get to know them. For folk that don’t actually like people (like me) that’s not straightforward, but it surely’s extra vital than your draw time, your meals cache, and even the locks in your door. Make it the precedence it deserves.

Be neighbor. Take their trash can out to the curb in the event that they overlook. Take particular observe and care of the outdated and infirm. Be sort. Should you can’t discuss to them, bake them (or purchase them) some cookies and depart them a observe saying “hello.” You may discover you share lots in frequent with them.

You may discover you possibly can depend upon them. You additionally may discover out you might be surrounded by individuals who’d slightly see you useless — if that’s the case, it’s higher to know that now whenever you nonetheless have an opportunity to do one thing about it, like depart.

Above: Widespread civil unrest typically forces companies to shut, making short-term resupply tough or inconceivable.

I’ve seen the supreme worth of group again and again, all around the world, however the variations in group reactions between hurricanes Katrina and Harvey highlighted the necessity to know your neighbors higher than every other.

Throughout Katrina, I helped with medical triage and shifting sufferers from the Superdome. Individuals from the identical neighborhoods have been rescued at very totally different occasions, with the aged typically arriving final, typically many days later. Sufferers typically arrived after being discovered by rescue groups throughout searches, even when individuals from the identical neighborhoods had already arrived on their very own. Looting was rampant and robberies and theft even contained in the reduction facilities have been frequent. These individuals didn’t know one another.

Throughout Harvey, Houston and all the encompassing cities flooded. I used to be volunteering with the Staff 5 Medical Basis offering direct medical remedy. Waterborne rescue items, like ours, used overpasses not solely as dry-land refuge however as boat ramps. We have been by no means the primary to reach. Time after time, there have been local people members already there, they usually weren’t simply ready for assist, they have been offering it. Youngsters in a automotive membership informed us about an condo advanced the place the water rose so quick it trapped different lovers on the third flooring.

Others informed us about those that have been at all times round once they cooked out at a park on Sundays, and the place they need to be. In locations the place that they had reception, some teams have been operating large textual content chains monitoring individuals who wanted assist and their areas, offering these to rescuers. In lots of communities, civilian organizations rescued everybody earlier than authorities property even arrived. That group engagement saved tens of hundreds of lives. These lives might be yours, your family and friends, particularly if authorities property received’t be arriving in any respect.

Looting throughout Harvey was extraordinarily uncommon; theft in reduction facilities was unparalleled. These have been neighbors serving to neighbors.
Past merely speaking to your neighbors, a good way to get that data is to affix a service group in your group. Ideally that might be one thing like a neighborhood fireplace division or different emergency service.

It doesn’t matter if it’s for pay or when you volunteer — get entangled. Homeless shelters, meals banks, EMT dispatch facilities, jail companies, all of those are good choices. You need to discover one thing that serves the group and is logistically tied into the formal infrastructure of that group.

Becoming a member of a group service group will assist you to get direct, real-time information of what’s occurring in and round your group past your personal social group. Whether it is tied into the formal infrastructure of the group, you’ll additionally see when the necessity for these companies rises (not good) and also you’ll get an early indication on when these companies are failing (very unhealthy).

Should you can’t be part of any of those organizations, befriend somebody that did and discuss to them often. When the COVID shutdowns kicked off, my spouse, volunteering at a county meals financial institution, informed me she noticed “soccer-moms in Escalades driving up asking for no matter they might get.” She noticed individuals she’d by no means seen earlier than asking for meals.

That was a giant signal that issues have been going awry, and never simply because individuals have been unreasonably scared. That massive inflow of recent individuals who might drive there of their costly vehicles meant that there was no meals left by the point the really destitute households acquired there any means they might. These later households went house with nothing, and now they have been determined. Determined individuals do determined issues.

The failure of native methods to supply for the poor and indigent is without doubt one of the largest alerts that you ought to be taking rapid motion. One other large one is the capability of the native well being care system. In case you are a member of one of many aforementioned companies, you’ll get an early warning of when these methods fail. A stable metric for hassle is when hospitals are diverting sufferers to different amenities, particularly if they’re totally different hospital methods.

Hospitals generate profits off sufferers. If they’re sending these sufferers someplace else, it’s as a result of they will’t determine a technique to deal with them. This has a quickly cascading impact on a group, as individuals need to go farther and farther away for care. Major care physicians, already stretched skinny, are virtually immediately overwhelmed.

Should you don’t have direct entry to that data, no less than take note of hospital, pressing care, and minor emergency clinic parking tons. Are they utterly full swiftly (with out an accompanying pure catastrophe)? That’s not good. Did they get quickly full and now they’re deserted? That’s very, very unhealthy.

I’ve skilled riots in South Africa, Haiti, and all through the creating world. I’ve by no means seen one which didn’t raid the pharmacies first. Individuals don’t care what they’re stealing, they only steal every thing. Now no person’s children get insulin or bronchial asthma medicine with no combat. Add to that actuality the numerous portion of Individuals on psychological well being medicines for nervousness and panic issues and now they will’t get their prescriptions stuffed. Welcome to Thunderdome.

When the social companies in my space begin failing, it’s time for me to name associates close to and much away, test highway situations, maintain the vehicles gassed up, and maintain my household shut. That’s once I’m on my novice radio speaking to individuals all around the nation, or farther, to search out out what it’s like the place they’re and the way straightforward it’s to get there. Luggage are getting packed. Members of the family get texted all through the day, and everybody is aware of it’s time to be prepared to depart.

If all of the hospitals in my space are diverting sufferers, I pull my children out of faculty and go someplace else. Easy issues like a damaged leg from a fall or a automotive wreck turn into life and limb-threatening when you possibly can’t get into the ER. That’s essentially the most rapid and certain hazard and it’s utterly avoidable.

I really feel really sorry for the parents that don’t have the choice to depart. Your solely selection then is to harden up and wait it out. I’ve hardly ever seen that work in a suburban atmosphere like people who encompass DC if there’s a massive city inhabitants close by. The exception is a few of the communities in Pretoria and Johannesburg, South Africa, which have been in a position to create their very own walled and patrolled cities within cities. Something in need of that, and also you simply find yourself dying of some simply treatable sickness or harm, otherwise you get burned alive inside your well-stocked house. The primary group to your door brings weapons, the following group brings gasoline.

For the overwhelming majority of individuals with households, like me, leaving is nearly at all times the most suitable choice. Because you’ve talked to family and friends about routes of escape, there’s not a adequate motive to remain. Your whole work along with your neighbors and your group signifies that you had loads of time to prepare. You most likely had time to pack numerous stuff. No person is unduly confused, and your choices are based mostly on actual, actionable data, not broadcast concern.

Above: Reasonably than permitting your self to turn into consumed by division and anger, give attention to constructing optimistic relationships with different members of your group.

Conclusion

Very similar to the Balkans, the US is way from a homogeneous society — our nation is made up of states with monumental geographic, financial, cultural, ethnic, and spiritual variations. And it’s inconceivable to disclaim that we’re at present going through most of the identical struggles, together with tumultuous politics, media bias, rising inflation, inside division, and opposition from rival nations.

Some imagine we’re doomed to comply with within the footsteps of countries which have preceded us, whereas others are extra hopeful. No matter your opinion on what the long run holds, the ready particular person ought to ask two questions. First, what can I do to be prepared for the worst-case situation? Secondly, and extra urgently, ask your self how can I assist stop that consequence?

Because the November election approaches, we encourage you to take a step again, unplug your self from the 24/7 barrage of TV and web political hysteria, and work on making associates slightly than enemies.

Stronger communities yield stronger states and a stronger nation. As Founding Father Patrick Henry stated in his final public speech in March 1799, “United we stand, divided we fall. Allow us to not cut up into factions which should destroy that union upon which our existence hangs.”

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Editor’s Word: This text has been modified from its unique model for the net.

Written by Nick Italiano