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HomeOff Grid & Self SufficiencySituational Consciousness Analysis: Half 3 - Baselines & Anomalies

Situational Consciousness Analysis: Half 3 – Baselines & Anomalies

Most of your coaching within the emergency response subject is reactive. You positively need to be educated in how you can react to occasions, as a result of we will’t observe all the pieces on a regular basis. Muscle reminiscence is a big benefit when confronted with violence or annoying conditions. However what if there was a option to be proactive as a substitute of reactive along with your situational consciousness? Analyzing habits is proactive and is a technique of observing human habits (baselining) and in search of suspicious indicators (anomalies), which can point out a person’s or group’s intentions.

Editor’s Notice: That is Half 3 in a sequence on the advantages of situational consciousness. We would suggest studying Half 1 and Half 2 if you have not already.

Why Habits Evaluation Is Vital

Above: As behavioral skilled David Matsumoto mentioned in his interview in RECOIL OFFGRID Challenge 51, there are widespread physiological giveaways inherent to dishonesty and maligned habits.

Analyzing habits presents a singular method to risk mitigation that begins from the viewpoint of the risk and is predicated on the precise adversary’s strategies of operation. It permits us to anticipate the habits and intentions of the dangerous actors, reasonably than simply react to their actions.

The Left of Bang Mindset


If you concentrate on an incident time line, think about bang is true there within the center. After a bang occasion there are “good man” actions and “dangerous man” actions that occur. The nice actions are folks calling 911, rendering medical help, locking down their space, and so forth. Examples of dangerous man actions could be escaping from the realm, ditching weapons or clothes used within the crime, or promoting stolen items. All of those actions fall into the proper of bang class. Unhealthy issues have occurred and we’re simply cleansing up the mess.

We need to be observant of all the pieces left of bang. The pre-event indicators and actions that occur earlier than violence or an assault. When you can spot a criminal offense or assault earlier than it occurs, your probabilities of stopping or disrupting the assault go up exponentially. So it’s essential to know and practice how you can react to those occasions, however there’s an entire different facet of the coin that most individuals don’t take note of.

Set up Behavioral and Atmospheric Baselines

Chances are you’ll not notice it, however you employ baselines on a regular basis in your on a regular basis life. A baseline is just what’s regular and common given a selected time, state of affairs, and context. You create a baseline by statement. The longer you may observe a person or space, the higher baseline you determine however you’re not going to have an infinite period of time to make these observations in the true world. Baselines can be developed by previous experiences, historic examples, or information of dangerous actor ways. Baselines are continually altering based mostly upon new folks, occasions, and time. For instance, a sure part of city might appear and feel a method through the daytime however could also be extraordinarily totally different at night time.

So why are baselines essential? By having a baseline, you’re capable of extra simply detect anomalies. Anomalies may be something out of the bizarre — issues that simply don’t appear proper. And with regards to security and safety, anomalies may be extraordinarily essential to concentrate to. By being conscious of your environment and figuring out what’s regular for that individual surroundings, you’re extra prone to spot one thing that isn’t proper. This may very well be something from somebody loitering round your neighborhood to an uncommon bundle left in your doorstep.

Above: Have been you anticipating a bundle? If not, this can be a ploy somebody makes use of to get you to open your door or make observations about your habits or way of life with out you realizing it.

Establishing Particular person Baselines

To ascertain particular person baselines, that you must get a learn on an individual’s nonverbal communication and what they’re placing out to the world. Relying on what analysis you take a look at, nonverbal communication makes up 60 to 65 % of communication, however most individuals simply concentrate on the spoken phrase. You need to take note of what individuals are saying, however there’s an entire world of different indicators on the market to concentrate to. The excellent news is most individuals don’t even notice the quantity of data they’re gifting away as they go about their day after day.

Particular person Baseline Indicators

Posture: Does the particular person appear closed off and showing to make themselves smaller (submissive habits) or do they stand tall with their shoulders again making eye contact with everybody of their neighborhood (dominant habits)?

Tone of Voice: Is their tone of voice and quantity constant or erratic? The extra bass somebody provides to their voice may be considered as making an attempt to intimidate. The extra high-pitched their tone will get may be considered as a stress indicator.

Pace of Motion: Does the particular person stroll with a goal and have their head on a swivel, or do they give the impression of being down as they transfer with little to no arm swing of their gait. If an individual is strolling slower than everybody else round them however then begins shifting quicker with an extended gait, why? What brought about this shift?

Consideration: The place is the particular person’s consideration centered? Is their consideration the place it must be? If I’m on the finish of a marathon ready to see the winners cross the road, why is that this particular person’s consideration centered down at purses and pockets?

Clothes: Does their closing match the baseline of the realm you’re in? Are they carrying a cumbersome sweater with sweatpants but it surely’s 92 levels exterior? Is that this a company occasion the place everyone seems to be in a go well with and tie, however one particular person is carrying flip-flops?

You need to use these questions and any of the opposite nonverbal indicators like facial expressions, gestures, touching, bodily actions, physique adornment, and so forth to grow to be a pupil of individuals and set up these behavioral baselines.

Set up Group Baselines

Above: One particular person is standing nonetheless whereas others are fluid. This particular person is out of baseline and stands out. This can be a widespread option to spot somebody whose habits isn’t in keeping with the group. Critiques of surveillance footage instantly following the Boston Marathon bombing confirmed the bombers shifting in opposition to the circulate of the group, which enabled authorities to zero in on them.

You possibly can set up group indicators utilizing the above nonverbals, however would additionally need to take note of proxemics or the distances folks hold from folks or objects. Proxemics is the department of information that offers with the quantity of house that folks really feel is critical to set between themselves and others. Proxemics consists of the messages folks specific when, for instance, they like to take a seat on the entrance or again of a classroom, or whether or not they sit close to to or removed from the top of the desk at a gathering. Principally, the extra snug you’re with an individual or object, the nearer you get. The extra uncomfortable you’re, the farther you get.

Proxemic baselines positively have cultural variance, relying on the place you’re from. However usually, within the Western world, we wish to hold about one arm’s distance from folks. When you see a bunch of individuals with lower than that distance between, you may confidently say they’re snug with one another and know one another effectively. By noticing how a bunch of individuals interacts with one another, you can begin to assemble essential data.

Group Baseline Indicators

Distance Aside: How shut or far does the group preserve their distance from one another? Does it seem that they only met, or do they act like they’re very snug?

Consideration: Does their consideration keep inward with one another like they’re having a dialog or are their eyes wandering, taking within the space. If one particular person notices one thing and orients themselves, does the remainder of the group change their focus too?

Noise Degree: Is the group loud and obnoxious or are they quiet and having private conversations with one another?

Mimicry: Is there one particular person within the group who individuals are mimicking with their posture? If one particular person goes from hands-on-hips to hand-on-chin, does everybody else comply with? That’s normally the chief or “alpha” of the group.

Intrusion: If somebody approaches their group, do they “open the gate” and allow them to into the group or do they shut ranks and go shoulder to shoulder?

These are just some examples of what Group Baseline Indicators are, however there are numerous extra on the market. One of the simplest ways to study them is to concentrate to the following dialog you have got and see if you happen to can spot any of those indicators getting used.

Above: Is somebody getting in your bubble with out your expressed curiosity or consent? This can be a sign of somebody making an attempt to make the most of you.

Set up Environmental Baselines

You’ve most likely heard of studying the room, however have you ever ever heard of studying the atmospheric indicators round you? Similar to the temper of a room can change based mostly on the folks in it, the collective perspective or temper of a spot may also change. These adjustments may be brought on by a mixture of cultural, social, geographic, and particular person components. By asking particular questions in regards to the space, you can begin to learn what that geographic space is speaking to you.

Your Fast Environment: This will appear apparent, but it surely’s essential to take the time to have a look at your environment and spot the small print. What sort of surroundings are you in? Is it soiled or clear? Brilliant or dim? Quiet or loud? By taking a second to essentially see your environment, you’ll begin to get a really feel for the ambiance.

Hearken to Folks Round You: One other essential factor of studying atmospheric indicators is listening to the folks round you. What are they saying? How are they saying it? What sort of feelings does their dialog evoke in you? By being attentive to each verbal and nonverbal cues, you can begin to get a way of what the temper is like.

Overt Safety Components: If there are safety cameras and “No Trespassing” indicators on nearly each block, it’s a superb indication that the residents are afraid of one thing — or somebody. Unhealthy actors usually conduct their shenanigans out of deserted buildings or vacant tons, so property house owners put up a lot of these indicators to discourage them.

Pay Consideration to Graffiti: Whereas graffiti may be an expression of artwork, it can be utilized by criminals to mark their territory. Not simply what the particular graffiti communicates, however any change in its frequency. If there’s an entire lack of it sooner or later after which there’s an enormous quantity the following or vice versa. If there’s at all times recent graffiti within the space, then sooner or later it simply stops, I need to know why.

Above: Get to know the symbols that gangs recognized to congregate in sure areas use to mark their territory. 

The important thing to studying an surroundings is noticing the little particulars. However don’t simply take a look at what’s occurring proper now — take time every day over weeks or months till finally this stuff grow to be clearer than ever earlier than as a result of all features mixed create an environment that tells us all the pieces we have to learn about any location whether or not good/dangerous, warming/chilly, and so on.

Detecting Anomalies

Now that we’ve established our totally different baselines (what must be), we will begin scanning proactively for our anomalies. Anomalies are any adjustments or new developments in a state of affairs that rise above or fall under the baseline. When most individuals hear the phrase anomalies, we immediately join it to a lethal risk, and that may very well be the case. However generally anomalies aren’t a direct risk, however simply extra data. The road sweeper who exhibits up each Tuesday at 9 a.m. doesn’t present up is an anomaly. Would I name 911 instantly? No, however I would need to discover out what brought about the anomaly. That’s the essence of the left-of-bang mindset; you’re a hunter out within the wild looking for any deviations from the baseline. If it’s a risk anomaly, decide and act. If it’s a much less critical anomaly, you go in investigative mode and don’t cease till your questions have been answered.

The presence of those oddities suggests there was some variety disruption; it would even trace towards what brought about stated change. And since we’re making an attempt to determine why issues went haywire right here, trying into each final element will assist us get nearer towards fixing this thriller faster than ever imagined potential.

Above: Take note of issues like vehicles following you. Whereas it could be utterly affordable somebody goes the identical means you’re, there’s some extent the place that you must notice that the chances of coincidence are dropping quick and it’s possible you’ll be getting arrange for an ambush.

Tomorrow Is a New Day

As we wrap up this three-part sequence on tightening your consciousness shot group, it’s essential to keep in mind that being observant of the world round us is essential to stopping violence. Most individuals solely soak up 20 to 30 % of the data flying round their head, so by turning into a pupil of habits and increasing your baselines you may really enhance your probabilities of disrupting or stopping a violent occasion earlier than it occurs. It might appear to be a frightening process, however with the present state of our world it’s extra essential than ever to be “left of bang.” Thanks for studying and hold your eyes open — one thing you observe tomorrow would possibly simply save your life.

Concerning the Creator

Yousef Badou is the proprietor and founding father of Emergence, a service-disabled veteran-owned small enterprise (SDVOSB) offering behavioral consciousness coaching to Fortune 500 corporations, navy, and different authorities companies. Yousef started his journey into safety coaching after a number of deployments with the U.S. Marine Corps. He’s an Arabic speaker and former infantryman, together with being the longest-standing member of the USMC Fight Hunter Coaching Program. With so many threats on the horizon, Yousef believes the easiest way to disrupt these threats is thru training on pre-event indicators and behaviors of violence.

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